My research primarily explores how people interact with the state and the society-state contract through leadership selection and governance processes. I am particularly interested in how formal and traditional institutions interact across space, especially in developing democracies where identity plays a significant role in shaping citizens’ perceptions of these structures.
I also research and write on Africa’s sprawling diplomatic architecture and the way states interact within bilateral agreements and blocs at the regional and continental levels, to varying degrees of success. Finally, I examine how these notions of a state, particularly in regions with strong sub-national identity groups, intersect with sports and football, and how this influences the way citizens engage with statehood.
While grounded in political science, my work is interdisciplinary, drawing from history, geography, economics, and public administration. I combine qualitative and quantitative approaches, leaning from focus group discussions and data analyses, with a growing focus on spatial analysis, geocoded data, and historical mapping of governance and voting patterns.
Adekaiyaoja, A. (2025). Nigeria: Election observers as gatekeepers of electoral legitimacy. In T. Molony (Ed.). Election Observation at a Crossroads: Perspectives from Africa (pp. 139–158). London: Zed Books. http://dx.doi.org/10.5040/9781350439450.ch-7
Akande OW, Elimian KO, Igumbor E, et al. Epidemiological comparison of the first and second waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria, February 2020–April 2021. BMJ Global Health 2021;6:e007076. doi:10.1136/ bmjgh-2021-007076
Adekaiyaoja, A., Adebowale, G.and Angalapu, D. (2024). A Tale of Two Deputies – Reviewing the Political Terrain of the 2024 Ondo Governorship Election. Centre for Democracy and Development.
Adekaiyaoja, A., and Yohanna, P.(2024). A Bellwether Election - Assessing Prospects and Trends ahead of the 2024 Edogovernorship election. Centre for Democracy and Development.
Adekaiyaoja, A. (2024). Foreign Influence in West Africa’s Security Sector – The West, Russia, and China. Dataphyte.
Ayandele, J., Adekaiyaoja, A.,and Angalapu, D. (2023). Nigeria’s 2023 Election Security Landscape – Drivers, Actors and Emerging Challenges.Centre for Democracy and Development.
Adekaiyaoja, A. (2023). Imbalanced Gender Representation in Cabinets during Nigeria’s Fourth Republic. Centre for Democracy and Development.
Adekaiyaoja, A. (2023). A Game of Coalitions, Counties and Contests: A Background to the 2023 Liberian General Elections. Centre for Democracy and Development.
Adekaiyaoja, A. (2023). Close, contested but credible? Sierra Leone’s 2023 elections. Centre for Democracy and Development.
Adekaiyaoja, A. (2023). Changing of the Guard: A View at the Trends and Terrain Determining the 2023 Nigerian General Elections. Centre for Democracy and Development.
Hassan, I. and Adekaiyaoja, A. (2022). Counter Coup in Burkina Faso. Centre for Democracy and Development.
I've had multiple publications at African Arguments, Africa Is A Country, the CDD Blog, Democracy in Africa, Foreign Policy, TechCabal, The Republic and World Politics Review.
On Sports
African Women’s Cup of Contradictions. MUNDIAL MAGAZINE. 18 July 2025.
Nigeria’s elephants in the room. AFRICA IS A COUNTRY. 26 February 2024.
The African Cup of Migrations. FOREIGN POLICY. 10 February 2024.
On Eagle’s Wings – Nigeria and AFCON 2023. AFRICA IS A COUNTRY. 5 February 2024.
Analysis: Is Ivory Coast’s AFCON the latest African‘sportswashing’ case? ALJAZEERA. 17 January 2024.
The Politics of Hosting AFCON. AFRICA IS A COUNTRY. 3 October 2023.
Victorious. AFRICA IS A COUNTRY. 19May 2023.
Life Imitates Ball: Geopolitics, Qatar and the FIFA WorldCup. THE REPUBLIC. 15 December 2022.
More than a National Pastime. AFRICA IS A COUNTRY. 15 June 2022.
Sports and the Nigerian Dream. STEARS BUSINESS. 21 August 2019.
How Sport Victories Help Politicians. STEARS BUSINESS. 10 July 2019.
How to Win the World Cup. STEARS BUSINESS. 25 June 2018.
On RegionalGeopolitics
Trump Is Just Saying the Quiet Part Out Loud on U.S.-AfricaTies. WORLD POLITICS REPUBLIC. 30 July 2025.
Is the African Union a Symbol of Waning Pan-Africanism? THE REPUBLIC. 8 June 2025
The African Union is Giving Djibouti’s Diplomatic Model aTry. WORLD POLITICS REVIEW. 14 March 2025.
2025 Will Be a Year of Change for Africa’s ContinentalLeadership. WORLD POLITICS REVIEW. 17 January 2025.
Ghana’s Democracy is Not the Outlier It is Made Out to Be. WORLD POLITICS REVIEW. 19 December 2024.
The Niger-Benin Rift Spells More Trouble for West Africa. WORLD POLITICS REVIEW. 12 July 2024.
Mali’s Military Misadventure. CDD. 17 May 2024.
Geopolitical Competition is Reshaping West Africa. WORLD POLITICS REVIEW. 30 April 2024.
Togo’s Constitutional Conflict. CDD.24 April 2024.
What Next for President Faye? CDD. 26 March 2024.
Alliance of Sahel States (AES): Yet Another Regional Bloc inWest Africa. CDD. 25 March 2024.
Senegal: A Model Democracy in Crisis. CDD. 6 March 2024.
ECOWAS’ Setbacks Reflect Nigeria’s Waning RegionalInfluence. WORLD POLITICS REVIEW. 1 February 2024.
A Region in Uncertainty: 2024 in Africa. CDD. 7 January 2024.
Liberia Welcomes a Familiar Face - Boakai Defeats Weah. CDD. 22 November 2023.
The next coup: Coming to a state near you? THE CONTINENT. 9 December 2023.
Is the next coup coming to an African state near you? DEMOCRACY IN AFRICA. 21 October 2023.
Coups Are Exposing the Shortcomings of Africa’s RegionalOrganizations. WORLD POLITICS REVIEW. 13 October 2023.
Will Nigeria Reclaim Its Role as a Regional Power? FOREIGN POLICY. 2 August 2023.
Niger Coup d’état - A Test for West African Democracy. CDD. 28July 2023.
Uncertain Future for Sierra Leone’s Democracy. CDD. 30June 2023.
Navigating Shit-Hole Countries: The US in Africa. STEARS BUSINESS. 15 March 2018.
Africa’s Old Guard Is Being Swept by Change. STEARS BUSINESS. 20 February 2018.
The Gambia - Democracy’s Victory. STEARS BUSINESS. 24 January 2017.
On Nigerian Foreign Policy
Can – and should – Nigeria break with Trump’s transactionalgeopolitics?. OPEN DEMOCRACY. 31 July 2025.
Analysis: The International Implications of Nigeria’s 2023Elections. PREMIUM TIMES NIGERIA. 6 November 2022.
From Well-Worn Fatigues toWell-Tailored Suits - Review of Joseph Garba’s ‘Diplomatic Soldiering. THE REPUBLIC. 22 September 2021.
What Is Nigeria’s Foreign Policy under President Buhari? STEARS BUSINESS. 2 June 2017.
On Nigerian History
Muhammadu Buhari and the Politics of Memory. THE REPUBLIC. 26 July 2025.
The Tragedy of Buharism. THE REPUBLIC. 12 July 2025.
The Tragedy of an Evil Genius. THE REPUBLIC. 13 April 2025.
The Saga of the Kano Emirate. THE REPUBLIC. 8 July 2024. (Winner, The Republic Prize for BestPolitics Essay for 2024)
The United States of Nigeria. THE REPUBLIC. 15 February 2023.
In the Mould of Aminu Kano – Rabiu Kwankwaso and the Legacyof Aminu Kano. THE REPUBLIC. 7 July 2022.
The Obasanjo Doctrine. THE REPUBLIC. 10 March 2022.
On Nigerian Socioculture
There Is No Youth Monolith. AFRICA IS A COUNTRY. 24 February 2023.
Big Brother as a Window into Nigerian Politics: Why Do WeRespond to Reality TV and our Elections so Differently? THE REPUBLIC. 16 January 2023.
How Do You Solve a Problem like the NTA. THE CULTURE CUSTODIAN. 20 May 2022.
Measuring Crowns for New Nigeria. THE CULTURE CUSTODIAN. 13 March 2020.
On Awards, Nollywood and Our Heritage of Storytelling. THE CULTURE CUSTODIAN. 25 February 2020.
On Nigerian Political Institutions, Theory and Practice
Have Nigerian Governors Lost Their Powers? THE REPUBLIC. 1 June 2025.
Is Nigeria Better Served with Parliamentary Governance? THE REPUBLIC. 30 September 2024.
Credible elections are needed to avert future coups. (withJumo Ayandele). AFRICA@LSE. 12 March 2024.
Is the Party over in Nigeria? FOREIGN POLICY. 18 April 2023.
The God (Win) of Small Things. THE REPUBLIC. 23 January 2023.
What Well-Trodden Routes to Power Tell Us about NigerianPolitics. AFRICAN ARGUMENTS. 16 December 2021.
The State vs Federal Debate for Policing in Nigeria. STEARS BUSINESS. 15 October 2020.
Don’t Blame INEC: It Is Designed to Fail. STEARS BUSINESS. 19 February 2019.
Governance Is Not Politics. STEARS BUSINESS. 3 January 2019.
Are Nigerian Political Parties Bad for Our Democracy? STEARS BUSINESS. 27 July 2018.
Strengthening the Seat of Justice. STEARS BUSINESS. Stears Business. 20 April 2017.
Mayor of the F.C.T.? STEARS BUSINESS. 14 March 2017.
Nigerian Presidential Succession: Who Comes Next? STEARS BUSINESS. 14 February 2017.
Our Boys in Green. STEARS BUSINESS. 16 January 2017.
The Limits of His Power. STEARS BUSINESS. 6 January 2017.
On Nigerian Politics
Tinubu is Reconfiguring Nigerian Politics – and CentralizingPower. WORLD POLITICS REVIEW. 18 June 2025.
Can Nigeria’s Centre Hold? THE REPUBLIC. 9 March 2025.
Ondo 2024 Governorship Election and the Hallmarks of aRecessive Democracy. THE REPUBLIC. 24 November 2024.
Mr Tijani Goes to Abuja. TECHCABAL. 15 October 2024.
What Really Shaped the 2024 Edo Governorship Election? THE REPUBLIC. 13 October 2024.
Nigeria Is Coming Apart at the Seams. WORLD POLITICS REVIEW. 4 October 2024.
So far so disappointing: Tinubu’s first year. THE CONTINENT. 15 June 2024.
What has President Tinubu achieved in his first year inoffice? DEMOCRACY IN AFRICA. 10 June 2024.
Three major lessons from a year of elections in Nigeria. DEMOCRACY IN AFRICA. 16 February 2024.
Identity, personality and bias. THE CONTINENT. 9 December 2023.
Rounding off a Year of Elections - Bayelsa, Imo and Kogi goto the polls. CDD 3 November 2023.
Too Big to Fail? Evaluating the Tinubu Cabinet. CDD. 22August 2023.
Tinubu’s cabinet nominees: Renewed hope or recycled tropes? AFRICAN ARGUMENTS. 8 August 2023.
Nigeria’s Political Evolution? Reflections on the 2023Elections. CDD. 29March 2023.
Can Nigerians Be Optimistic about the Future? STEARS BUSINESS. 22 March 2023.
Could Adamawa Elect Nigeria’s First Female Governor? CDD. 15March 2023.
2023: Nigeria’s Most Consequential Year since 1999. PREMIUM TIMES NIGERIA. 15 January 2023.
Why Nigerians Shouldn’t Focus on Presidential ElectionAlone. PREMIUM TIMES NIGERIA. 22 December 2022.
Nigerians Are Dissatisfied with Democracy. This Is How toSolve the Problem. PREMIUM TIMES NIGERIA. 11 December 2022.
2023 Polls: How Winners Emerge. CDD. 28 November 2022
Presidential Candidates Speak on Plans for Nigeria’sSecurity, Economy. PREMIUM TIMES NIGERIA. 20 November 2022.
Towards 2023 Elections: Uncertainty as campaigns begin inNigeria. PREMIUM TIMES. 30 October 2022.
A Decision for Nigeria: The 2023 Elections. DEMOCRACY PARADOX. 26 October 2022.
The Inevitability of Bola Ahmed Tinubu. THE REPUBLIC. 30 August 2022.
The Game Before the Game: The Ekiti and Osun GubernatorialElections in Nigeria. DEMOCRACY IN AFRICA. 29 July 2022.
Nigeria’s New Kingmakers. DEMOCRACY IN AFRICA. 22 June 2022.
A Heartbeat or An Election Away – What Will 2023 Mean forYemi Osinbajo? THE REPUBLIC. 4 May 2022.
The Dilemma of a Ruling Party – The Challenges Ahead ofAPC’s Quest to Retain Power. THE REPUBLIC. 28 February 2022.
Four Assumptions That Influence the 2023 Elections. STEARS BUSINESS. 8 May 2019.
Are You Better off Now than You Were Three Years Ago? STEARS BUSINESS. 4 June 2018.
The Story of Buhari. STEARS BUSINESS. 31 May 2018.
To Be or Not to Be in the Africa Free Trade Area. STEARS BUSINESS. 4 April 2018.
The 37th Governor. STEARS BUSINESS. 2 February 2018.
In Memoriam. STEARS BUSINESS. 15 January 2018.
On the 2019 Ballot. STEARS BUSINESS. 5 December 2017.
Another Record Nigerian Budget. STEARS BUSINESS. 14 November 2017.
A New Kind of Nigerian President. STEARS BUSINESS. 28 March 2017.
Adekaiyaoja, A,‘Sirens’ Omenana Magazine (2025)
Adekaiyaoja, A,‘Postings’ Kalahari Review (2021)
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